Thursday, July 27, 2023

Biden's Vietnam

 -- By Tom Phillips

Newsweek Photos 

Alea jacta est -- the die is cast.  Never has an empire cast its die so hesitantly, half-heartedly, vaguely or weakly.  But when President Biden agreed to grant NATO membership to Ukraine -- with no timetable or conditions attached -- he committed the western alliance to a mission impossible: a fight to the finish against the one country in the world that is built to fight forever. 

Russia will outlast any western offensive partly because of its size, but mostly because it is a permanently militarized fortress state. Government in Russia is inseparable from defense.  The Kremlin bears no resemblance to the White House or Buckingham Palace.  It stands at Moscow's highest elevation, surrounded by a 10- to 20-foot-thick brick wall that rises to 62 feet.  Inside the walls are treasures of Russian civilization, along with vintage cannons and piles of cannonballs, symbols of Russian resistance and resilience. Russian military tactics are ruthless, targeting soldiers and civilians with little concern for optics or world opinion. 

Russia has survived attacks from the West going back to the Dark Ages -- Goths and Huns, Norse and Swedes and Poles all came against them, and were turned back.  In modern times the French and German Empires --Napoleon, then Hitler -- attacked and were humiliated.  NATO is next.

The West sees Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as aggression, or imperialism, but to Russia it is defense of its own territory. The word Ukraine in Russian means "borderland."  Russia was formed a thousand years ago in the "Kievan Rus," now covered by parts of Ukraine, Belarus and western Russia.  Russia's first capital was Kyiv.  One-third of people in Ukraine still speak Russian and identify as Russian.  Parallels are far-fetched -- but let us say Ukraine is to the Kremlin what the North Atlantic Ocean is to the US and Canada – a geographic barrier essential to national security. 

If Russia is a fortress, NATO is more like a parade, a show of flags. Originally a 12-nation alliance in Western Europe, it now comprises 31 nations all over Europe, most of them far from the North Atlantic, many of them militarily insignificant. Why would the United States seek a mutual defense pact with Bulgaria, or Lithuania?   Historians Thomas Meaney and Grey Anderson argue critically that the real reason for NATO’s multiplication since the 1990’s has been to open markets for US business.  Former deputy secretary of state Stephen A. Biegun seems to confirm that line in a recent Washington Post column.  He and Marc Thiessen argue NATO membership for Ukraine would ensure peace, create confidence and encourage investors.  “A stable, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine will be a customer and trading partner for America. An unstable Ukraine, under constant threat from Russia, will be a continual drain on US resources,” they write.

Handing out NATO membership to potential customers and trading partners has now stuck the US and its allies with responsibility for the legitimate fears of tiny countries like Lithuania.  It will hardly assuage those fears by escalating an unwinnable war in Ukraine.  Right now, the US is sending cluster bombs to Ukraine that will kill and maim Ukrainian civilians, including children, for years to come.  Meanwhile it is pressing Ukrainian troops to be more aggressive, to fight to their deaths.  This is a drain on Ukraine's resources – the most precious of them -- far more than any sacrifice for us.

The US wants Ukraine to sacrifice thousands more soldiers and civilians on a killing field strewn with every conceivable kind of mine, and under relentless artillery fire. For what? Battlefield reports make it clear that Russia has clawed back its buffer in Ukraine, and nothing short of nuclear attack will dislodge it.  

Ukraine is already Biden's Vietnam.  It could be NATO's Waterloo.

 

-- Copyright 2023 by Tom Phillips 

1 comment:

  1. Very discerning and provocative. Thanks, Tom.

    ReplyDelete